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Why new home sales are disappointing, despite beating estimates

Housing Wire

Todays new home sales report beat market expectations, just like last weeks existing home sales report. From Census : New Home Sales : Sales of new single-family houses in December 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. percent (19.7

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New-home sales beat estimates but need a dose of reality

Housing Wire

With new-home sales growing since 2022, why are housing starts at recessionary levels? We had no growth in residential construction work hiring earlier in the year when rates were higher. I recently raised this concern about housing construction and new home sales in an interview on CNBC. Then mortgage rates fell from 7.5%

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The homebuilders’ 2025 supply and demand problem

Housing Wire

New home sales grew over last month in the latest Census report , but homebuilders are now facing a supply issue their inventory is building up. Monthly new home sales have been stagnant for the past two years. When mortgage rates decline, sales improve, but it becomes more challenging for builders and buyers when rates rise.

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Dunmor CEO Franck Ruimy on Newfi partnership and the residential investment lending sector

Housing Wire

Last week, business-purpose residential mortgage lender Dunmor announced that it received a minority equity investment from Newfi Lending , a nonagency mortgage lender owned by funds managed by Apollo Global Management. What does this mean for the residential real estate sector and how business-purpose mortgage lenders are trying to expand?

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The Federal Reserve’s housing recession dilemma

Housing Wire

Interestingly, employment for residential construction workers typically one of the first areas to experience declines before a recession has not yet seen its usual downturn. The key points of this report indicate that the Federal Reserve has overlooked the housing market for years. We have already seen the negative impact of 7.5%

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What’s keeping homebuilders from large-scale layoffs?

Housing Wire

However, employment for residential construction workers hasnt fallen at all, even with the decline in housing starts and permits. For those looking for recession signals , a decrease in the number of residential construction workers is usually an early sign. For the past two years, new home sales have ranged between 625,000-741,000.

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In leaving rates alone, the Fed hides behind solid labor market

Housing Wire

The Federal Reserve didnt raise or cut interest rates today, but the meeting highlighted something I have been emphasizing since 2022: the Fed is shaping its policy around the labor market more than inflation. However, the Fed only cut rates when they believed the labor market was softening in the second half of 2024.

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