Housing Wire

JANUARY 17, 2025

Todays housing starts data exceeded estimates; however, a closer examination of the report with the builder confidence reveals that the recent rise in mortgage rates , approaching 7.25%, has negatively affected builder sentiment. Since late 2022, our analysis indicates that mortgage rates in the 6%-6.5%

Mortgages 468

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 16, 2025

The 10-year yield and mortgage rates have been on a wild ride lately, even testing my top-end forecast at 7.25%, but today, the 10-year yield fell after remarks by Fed President Chris Waller about whether the Fed would do even more rate cuts than the market was anticipating. It’s not booming. It’s not falling.”

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 7, 2025

The new year has arrived, but little has changed regarding the direction of mortgage rates and their impact on the U.S. housing market. At HousingWire s Mortgage Rates Center on Tuesday, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.09%. ” Mortgage rates have continued to rise since the Federal Reserve meeting on Dec.

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Housing Wire

JULY 15, 2024

If we look at the housing market right now, sales are down, new listings are down and prices are decelerating. Good inflation data came in last week, the bond market rallied and mortgage rates took a notable dip below 7% for the first time in months. Maybe we’re finally past the peak of mortgage rates ? Inventory is 38.5%

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Mortgages Marketing Sales As-is 497

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 5, 2024

Declining mortgage rates have yet to break the dam on the stalled housing market, but the sweet spot on rates that would get the market moving again is about 5%. That’s according to a new survey from Mphasis Digital Risk, which revealed that 42% of prospective buyers said a 5% rate would get them back in the market.

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 4, 2024

The HousingWire Pulse Survey for Q4 2024 provides valuable insights into the current state of the real estate market from various perspectives: brokerage leaders, mortgage professionals, and real estate agents. This diversity allows for a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 23, 2024

It has been almost two months since mortgage rates spiked again, and my initial thought was this would tank housing demand. We had a positive 18-week period with purchase applications before mortgage rates started rising in September. Initially, the data showed more robust performance as mortgage rates approached 6%.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 8, 2025

Heading into the 2025 housing market, we havent had this many homeowners with mortgage rates over 6% since 2016. of outstanding mortgages, around 8.7 million borrowers, carry a mortgage with an interest rate over 6%. had these cheap mortgages. People with expensive mortgages are more likely to sell their house.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 28, 2024

The most positive development in the housing market over 2024 has been the increase in active housing inventory , which is approaching the levels seen in 2019. Although those 2019 levels represent a five-decade low before COVID-19, the market was still functioning better than it did from 2020 to 2023. Weekly inventory change (Dec.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 21, 2024

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell played the Grinch last week for the housing market, sending mortgage rates higher after his remarks at the Fed presser on Wednesday. However, we need lower mortgage rates to grow sales in a bigger fashion in 2025. However, this year, mortgage rates rose during this timeframe.

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 16, 2024

Mortgage applications decreased 17% from one week earlier as mortgage rates surged, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association ’s (MBA) weekly application survey for the week ending October 11, 2024. The refinance index decreased 26% from the previous week and was 111% higher than the same week one year ago.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 7, 2024

Mortgage rates have made almost a 2% move lower from the highs of 2023. Now that the jobs week data is in, the question is: can mortgage rates go even lower? While the Fed can be old and slow, the bond market, thankfully, is doing a lot of the heavy lifting and has already priced in a lot of Fed easing policy.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 19, 2024

Its late December so all the 2025 mortgage rate forecasts have been published. Most housing market analysts expect mortgage rates to spend the year with a 6 handle. The most optimistic predictions assume 2025 will see mostly low 6s for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Unfortunately, all of them are already wrong.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 2, 2025

Today, the jobless claims data again showed why mortgage rates continue to be elevated, confirming that the labor market isnt breaking. The labor market is getting softer but hasnt broken yet, as it has before every recession post World War II. Mortgage rates are expected to range between 5.75% and 7.25%.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 15, 2024

The statement was enough to raise mortgage rates to an even higher level, a sharp departure from the optimism lenders experienced during the September rally, which now seems like a distant memory. “We Meanwhile, the labor market “is now by many metrics back to more normal levels that are consistent with our employment mandate,” Powell said.

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Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2024

In 2023, following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank , the spreads between the 30-year mortgage and 10-year yield were at their worst, leading to new cycle highs. This meant mortgage rates were significantly higher than average. Mortgage spreads Last year, the 10-year yield hit 5% and mortgage rates got above 8%.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 4, 2024

Mortgage rates moved massively lower last week without any Federal Reserve rate cuts, primarily because the labor market is getting softer. Can mortgage rates go even lower? As we can see below, when the market priced economic weakness earlier in 2024, it took the 10-year yield down toward 3.80% but didn’t break that level.

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Housing Wire

JULY 23, 2024

Mortgage rates continue to move lower this week even as higher borrowing costs have kept activity subdued across many areas of the housing market. There were a record number of apartments delivered in many markets last year, but builders appear to be pulling back to avoid a glut of supply. Data from the U.S. in 2024 and to 6.4%

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 18, 2024

The market reacted badly to the FOMC statement and remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell during the Q&A presser, sending the 10-year yield and mortgage rates higher. What he got is higher mortgage rates again. Powell didn’t seem very confident while answering some questions about inflation and the labor market.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 10, 2025

Todays jobs report beat expectations, and in fact, the labor data was solid for jobs week, which means mortgage rates will stay elevated because its always about labor over inflation when talking about rates. In December 2023, the labor market reached a milestone, with non-farm payroll employment exceeding 157 million people employed.

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Mortgages Residential Construction As-is 488

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 15, 2024

An often misguided premise I see on social media is that lower mortgage rates are doing nothing for housing demand. Purchase application data First, purchase apps is the fastest way to look for positive or negative data at higher or lower mortgage rates. That’s ok — very few people are looking at the data without an agenda.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 2, 2025

Rising mortgage rates suppressed applications in the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) final mortgage applications survey index of 2024, released on Thursday. Mortgage demand declined 21.9% Mortgage demand had been on the upswing for much of November and December. from two weeks earlier during the week ending Dec.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 1, 2024

The best part about 2024 has been that higher mortgage rates have created an inventory buffer, so if the economy gets softer and rates fall, we have many more homes to work with than we had in 2020-2023. However, as mortgage rates have fallen recently , I haven’t been able to hit my targets, which isn’t a surprise.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 19, 2024

The Federal Reserve cut rates on Wednesday and mortgage rates went up! The answer lies in the bond market. The 10-year yield and 30-year mortgage rates have been in a slow dance since 1971 and trended together. We would not be having this conversation if mortgage rates were still in the range of 7.50%- 8% today.

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 4, 2024

Labor over Inflation has been the theme for mortgage rates to go lower in 2024, with the understanding that as soon as the labor market softens, the 10-year yield should head lower, which it has. I expect this number to be revised lower in time, but even with negative revisions, the labor market is getting softer, not breaking.

Mortgages 493

Mortgages Construction Residential Sales 493

Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2025

This housing market is on hold until mortgage rates come down. We knew that mortgage rates over 7% were possible for the year, and here we are. I still expect well spend most of the year under 7% for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage , but until that happens, home sales are at a standstill. When will that be?

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 11, 2024

On this crazy day with the bond market, mortgage rates dropped to another yearly low after the CPI inflation print. That means some borrowers are getting mortgage rate quotes under 6% today, so the rate environment has improved greatly from the highs around 7.50% this year. The mortgage spreads are improving in 2024.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 30, 2024

Despite initial concerns that tariffs would push mortgage rates up to 8% and reduce housing demand, this week has brought some encouraging news. The 10-year yield has remained stable at a crucial technical level and even reversed direction, resulting in improved mortgage rates. This is what happened in the last two years.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2024

Housing demand is very seasonal, so the fact that our pending contract data is firming up lately just shows that lower mortgage rates have stabilized and firmed up demand recently. It will likely take mortgage rates to go under 6% and stay there for an extended period to get real sustained demand growth from record-low sales levels.

Mortgages 525

Mortgages As-is Marketing Sales 525

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 21, 2024

Home prices firmed up in today’s existing home sales report , but we caught on to this trend two months ago with our Housing Market Tracker. As part of our tracker, we focus on purchase application data, and I am always looking to see what level of mortgage rates gives us growth in purchase apps. However, that didn’t happen.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 6, 2024

The downward movement in mortgage rates over the past few months accelerated last week as a cooler-than-expected jobs report and indications of a Federal Reserve rate cut led to a steep drop in loan pricing. Several reported that mortgage rates rose again on Tuesday due to weaker mortgage-backed securities prices.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 11, 2024

Zillow is moving full speed ahead with an ambitious expansion of its mortgage business, leveraging its housing tech innovations to potentially reshape how modern homebuyers finance homes. billion in purchase mortgage business, not far off a top 50 spot on the mortgage leaderboard. That’s an annualized $3.2

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 12, 2025

During the 10-minute conversation, Pieklo explores his new focus on developing AFR’s wholesale lending strategy, the competitive landscape of the mortgage market, and the company’s unique approach to differentiating itself from other big names in the wholesale space. We look to the secondary markets first.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 9, 2025

Despite the frequency of departures, real estate agents in the state say the housing market remains strong. On the balance, there are still more buyers with their eye on a purchase than there are houses on the market. Statewide, the housing market has a 90-day average Altos Market Action Index score of 44.18 as of Jan.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 1, 2024

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.62% on Thursday, a new low for 2024 that appears to be tied to the expectation that the Federal Reserve could move to cut interest rates at its next meeting in September. This is according to data reported by Mortgage News Daily.

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 5, 2024

18 and mortgage rates and bond yields headed higher. But, we have to remember that mortgage rates had already made an almost 2% move lower since the highs of 2023 without rate cuts, as the bond market always gets ahead of the Fed. This explains the rise in mortgage rates since the Fed cut rates.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 14, 2025

Mortgage rates continued their ascent this week after Fridays jobs report showed that employers added more positions than expected in December, which is likely to cement a pause on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this month. when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) wraps up its next meeting on Jan.

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